Nobody knows how to slice and dice voter information in Arlington better than Carrie Johnson, who last night provided the Arlington County Democratic Committee with a preliminary, but comprehensive, exploration of turnout in the March 1 presidential primary, and what it means for the future.
Most interestingly, Johnson thinks about 5,500 to 6,000 county voters who traditionally, but not universally, vote Democratic opted this time around to take ballots for the Republican primary. She says that’s one reason that the likes of Marco Rubio and John Kasich outperformed Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.
The fact that the crossovers appeared to be voting for centrist Republicans seemed to be positive for the county’s Democratic party. “I find this, frankly, very encouraging,” Johnson said. “Part of our job [in November] is to get them to cross back.”
On the other hand, Johnson noted that turnout in the Democratic primary was low among minority-heavy areas, and appeared low in precincts with a higher concentration of younger voters. That’s worrisome for the party headed into the general election, she said.
Will They Stay or Will They Go?
While other news outlets were chasing down the latest cupcake-store opening (I haven’t used that one in a while ...), the Sun Gazette yesterday was at a presentation about demographic shifts in Arlington, past, present and future.
The biggest question: Has Arlington reached the top of a “Millennial bubble,” with those of the born-in-1982-to-2000 generation who have moved to the county now thinking about moving out?
So far, it’s too early to tell, which make sense since the trailing edge of that generation is not yet even in college. But the answer could have far-reaching implications.
We’ll have coverage.