Housing news mixed in Prince William County

By Cheryl Chumley

Published: August 26, 2008

Foreclosures on the rise nationally. Foreclosures on the rise regionally and locally. But in Prince William, the rate of foreclosure, and the prediction for more of the same, is nonetheless tempered by some positive news: Home sales in June were on the upswing and the job market remains strong.

“Despite the acute crisis in the housing market,” the latest issue of the county’s Economic Indicators Newsletter reads, “the local economy still exhibits remarkable resilience … The predominance of the federal government and Prince William’s enviable proximity to it will greatly ameliorate any downturn in economic activity.”

At the same time, June looked as good for the housing market as could be said for any month in a long time. But in context, the report suggests, that’s still not saying a lot.

“Home sales in Prince William County for June 2008 continued to reflect a troubled market, though some positive signs were apparent,” according to the newsletter. “Home sale prices halted their five-month decline in June.”

The average reported price for that month was $288,005, compared to May’s $284,509.

“Lest we get too cheeky, however,” the findings continue, “it must be noted that one month does not a trend make and June’s number is still a 25.6 percent decrease from a year earlier, when the average home sold for more than $400,000.”

So is the overall news good or bad?

Mixed, at best, and it’s too soon to predict when the pendulum will swing to one decided direction, according to the report.

On one hand, there’s this: “A further indication of intransigent problems in the real estate market is the number of distressed properties, meaning homes in pre-foreclosure, auction and bank-owned … In Prince William County, the number of distressed properties increase dramatically throughout the first three quarters of 2007,” according to the findings.

On the other hand, this: In the last quarter of 2007, the number of distressed properties in the county tapered.

But once again, the report flows the other way, with statistics compiled for January 2008 showing distressed properties were once again on the rise. And once again, the gloom and doom comes with temperance.

“The current wave appears to have crested,” this section of the report finishes, “with over 6,600 distressed properties reported for May and just over 5,900 for June 2008.”