Battling for two Virginias

John Merli
Published: September 24, 2008

If it’s true the distance between Northern Virginia and Richmond is “about 100 years,” then it’s also probably true that both presidential campaigns have been forced to adopt a sort of two-state mentality
as each side tries to carve out enough votes to put Virginia in their column by election night on Nov. 4.

The fact that the commonwealth is even up for grabs in any White House race is news unto itself, of course, since much of Virginia from much of Prince William County on down has been mostly in the
red (so to speak) in recent history (despite the statewide electoral successes of bluish-moderates like Tim Kaine, Jim Webb and Mark Warner in recent years). Joe Biden’s third visit to our fair state in
barely a week (not to mention that huge crowd the McCain-Palin ticket drew in Fairfax a couple of weeks ago), represent both parties’ not-so-subtle bid to garner Virginia’s electoral nod in six weeks.

The anomaly, of sorts, which seems to have become far more pronounced in the 45 years since I first moved to Northern Virginia, is that political preferences of Northern Virginia usually side with the
North, while many zip codes south of us in the commonwealth clearly belong to the sensibilities of the South. (In other words, if the Civil War ever had to be fought all over again for some reason, we could
find more than enough Virginia residents to fight on both sides and conveniently confine the entire war within the state line).

While vice presidential candidates hardly seem to have been a factor in most previous campaigns, it seems logical that Biden (as well as his running mate) will have his biggest positive impact here in the
northern third of the state, while Sarah Palin will likely glean most of her support in central and southern Virginia (along with her running mate) — but there seems little doubt she can count on far less
female support in Northern Virginia than elsewhere in the state.

So both campaigns find themselves, in effect, campaigning in two very distinctive “states” — Northern Virginia and The Rest of Virginia. A few other states (i.e., California, New York and Minnesota) also
have demonstrated sharp political contrasts internally over the years within the same elections. Yet perhaps what makes Virginia unique (besides its national historic significance) is our proximity to
Washington — where much of “official Washington” resides on this side of the Potomac — and where little of what we do here goes unnoticed on a national level by government and the media. (Prime
examples: Illegal aliens and mortgage foreclosures.)

Adding to the mix is the fact that our geographically elongated, strategically situated County of Prince William is something of a microcosm of the state itself. We’re part brand-new and part
historic/traditional, part poor and part wealthy, part country and part gridlock, and the contrasts (especially politically) can often be dramatic. It’s hardly a scientific poll, but if you compare a lot of the
letters-to-the-editor on this page (and our Web site) coming from readers in Manassas and points west, to the letters from Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Occoquan and other areas due east in the county,
you’ll often note differences in tone and attitude, as well as opinion. No side is better or worse than the other; but the contrasts within our single county are rather remarkable. Add in the military
community of Quantico (with Marines shipping in and out from the entire country) and soon you have a diversity of demographics and political preferences that would keep the same political science class
busy through all four years of high school.

The reasons for this often sharp, sometimes unruly diversity in the county’s make-up makes perfect sense when we consider all the relatively “new” neighborhoods (30 years or younger) within only a few
miles in all directions of Potomac Mills. And it all tends to draw sharp economic and political distinctions in what could prove this year to be a crucially important state — no doubt requiring both major
presidential campaigns working overtime to reign in.

It’s not out of the question that the real “swing state” to help decide who will head for the White House in January could be Virginia. And then the question could come down to only two polar-opposite
states — Northern Virginia and The Rest of Virginia.

John Merli has been a Prince William County resident since 1984.  He has worked in the media for more than 30 years. E-mail him at .