Reader with respect for Corey Stewart

Posted by ( Ed Long ) on August 14, 2008 at 7:21 am

This is a ‘Thank You’ to Gwen & Gary for their High Quality Reader Reaction Entry that has clarity and courtesy in reference to matters of crime and related matters in Prince William County.

Ed Long

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Posted by ( gwen.and.gary ) on August 11, 2008 at 4:29 pm

To be fair, the question in all of this appears to be something along the lines of “Is crime on the increase or decrease in the county?”.  From that, we might also derive an additional query: “Do the policies of Chairman Stewart have anything to do with the increase or decrease of crime?”

An increase (or decrease) in violent crime might be attributable to something other than a particular piece of legislation—say, a sudden shift in the social strata of a certain area, or an increasing vigilance on the part of its occupants to report crime to the authorities.

There’s also the matter of demographics, which must be discussed with care, as some may feel that “profiling” grows out of such an examination.  One may look at, say, the Route 1 corridor in the eastern part of the county, and be able to say “There is a high concentration of people of Hispanic origin living in this area”.  They may also be able to say “There is an increase in violent crime in this same area”.  While both statements may be fairly accurate on their face, the conditions they describe may, in fact, be totally unrelated to one another.  One cannot say with certainty that one situation begets the other without having first looked at factual information gathered over a considerable period of time.

Let’s look at this thought for a moment: are there documented cases of violent crime committed by those of Hispanic origin (legal status nonwithstanding)?  Yes, there are.  Are there also documented cases of violent crimes committed in the county by those of other nationalities, races, and colors?  Yes, absolutely. 

If we then accept for a moment that Hispanics relocating outside the county mean less county residents, can we reason from that that crime overall may decrease?  Possibly yes, if for no other reason that the pool of possible offenders has decreased also—statistically speaking, of course.  If we connect to this the argument that the policies spearheaded by Chairman Stewart may have had something to do with this recent decrease in the population of Hispanics (again, legal status nonwithstanding), then by the reasoning of some we may be able to say that the Chairman’s edict has had some possible positive effect with respect to crime in Prince William County.

Yes, it’s a stretch.  It’s an incredible, remarkable stretch with an unconventional bit of reasoning attached, for what it’s worth.

My opinion is that demographically, much more study needs to be put into what has already happened, and is still happening, before an accurate picture of the effects of this anti-illegal resident legislation can be drawn.  It seems a bit early in the game to be celebrating for one side or the other.

Right?  Wrong?  Perhaps time (and the facts) will provide the answer to that question.

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Posted by ( Grant Gary Jacobsen ) on August 09, 2008 at 6:37 pm

Now here is a fact that I provided a few days ago, but which was mysteriously deleted: according to PW County police statistics, the overall crime rate has been going down steadily for at least the last five years (before Mr. Stewart came on the scene).

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Posted by ( anonmom ) on August 09, 2008 at 9:40 am

Posted by ( Grant Gary Jacobsen ) on August 08, 2008 at 12:41 pm

Logic 101: Anecdotal comments do not prove a thing. Stick with the facts, not emotions.

Wow, am I the only person who has never seen a major news columnist berate and ridicule a reader? Oh, wait, this is Jacobsen. I forgot which paper I was reading.

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Posted by ( raywilliams ) on August 09, 2008 at 6:44 am

cobra, I’ll also admit - being in business - I don’t sport bumper stickers or usually even yard signs. Focus on the job at hand and keep politics out of the conversation.
There is nothing like a nice ride to make the trip to and from work a little more enjoyable. Sometimes we forget there is more to life than our political views. I’m sure the Obama lady would like your Mustang even if you had a McCain sticker on it - in part due to the dashing driver sitting behind the wheel! Funny how we can all be friends if we take off our labels ...

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