Will Prince William County turn blue?

By Cheryl Chumley

Published: October 12, 2008

Virginia’s red-state status is in question. Come close of polls Nov. 4, the Commonwealth and historically Republican Prince William County will turn the corner into staunch Democrat territory.

At least that’s what some surveys, election analysts and major media outlets are reporting.

On the congressional front, Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, doesn’t even attempt a show of reserve that

Virginia is a shoo-in for the Democratic Party this year. He all but calls Mark Warner — candidate for the Senate seat being vacated by unrelated Republican John Warner — the winner in his Oct. 2 Crystal Ball analysis.

“Mark Warner will succeed the retiring John Warner in a landslide for Democrats,” Sabato opines. “Democrats will control the governorship and both Senate seats for the first time since January 1970. Virginia’s years as a Republican stronghold are well over.”

Do the Republicans know this? Not publicly.

Senate opponent Jim Gilmore says the party hasn’t abandoned Virginia. The fact that he hasn’t campaigned in voter-rich Prince William County since July; has raised but a million, give or take, to Warner’s nine; and hasn’t received even press release coverage at the National Republican Senatorial Committee Web site since June, is not indicative of support level, he said at the News and Messenger office last week.

The NRSC is financially broke, Gilmore said, and a better gauge of his party’s support is to look at the multitude of individual contributions of seated senators.

Perhaps. But to suggest otherwise would seem order-of-the-day. On Oct. 4, for instance, Politico.com cited Republicans as in agreement with Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokespeople that the economy has suddenly shifted poll numbers in strong favor of Democratic candidates.

“Republicans fully expect to lose Virginia,” this story reported.

Does that go for the presidential front, too?

While leaning toward Democrats in some congressional and gubernatorial races, Virginia has voted consistently for the Republican presidential candidate since 1964. At the same time, the latest public-opinion tracker Rasmussen Reports from Oct. 6 find Barack Obama leads John McCain statewide, 50 percent to 48 percent. That’s a number that hasn’t changed much in the past couple weeks; the pollster’s Sept. 29 report found Obama leading McCain in Virginia by 50 percent to 47 percent.

And Prince William, with its 214,000-plus registered voters, according to statistics received last week from the county registrar’s office, is expected to play a large role in determining the outcome of this presidential race. Turnout, in fact, is expected to surpass the record high participation of the 1992 Clinton versus Bush I contest, when 89.2 percent of voters in the county cast ballots, voting officials say.

But where that large role will lead in terms of the presidential election is difficult to predict.

On one hand, Prince William’s 360,000-plus population includes a large military presence with a voting block that typically swings Republican. On the other hand, the county also has a large population of blacks. Roughly a fifth of the county’s population, according to 2000 Census Bureau statistics, is comprised of this Democrat-leaning constituency.

Further, look at the county’s illegal immigration policy. Merits to the side, the policy was passed, funded and enforced with majority voter backing, and its continued existence certainly shows a conservative streak among supporters. But to say that conservative presence will translate into votes for McCain at the polls is a different matter. The very same who support the immigration policy in Prince William are also likely feeling disenfranchised and even angered by a state and federal Republican membership that has seemed to turn a blind eye to enacting and enforcing similar strict laws on a wider scale.

And don’t even mention the bailout bill.

If it’s true that the first House vote against the measure came because of the indignant outcry of citizens who reminded politicians of upcoming elections, then the second vote to pass will surely go down in history as the pivotal point at which constituents decided to send the flip-floppers back to civilian life.

Still, elections never turn out as media and analysts predict and just because signs seem to favor Democrats in the state and maybe locale, the fact is history is swollen with mistakes.

Remember 2004, the year Florida was called early for John Kerry — not only erroneously, but also to the chagrin, once again, of some members in the media who had publicly pledged to avoid the exit poll and election night debacle of 2000. Had Florida’s vote count panned, Kerry would have won.

Four years later, and one lesson learned should leave the smart voter ignoring the polls, both leading up to and during election night, regardless of what is being reported.

Staff writer Cheryl Chumley can be reached at 703-670-1907.