Democrat Joe Biden maintains a double-digit lead over President Donald Trump in Virginia and an even bigger lead in Northern Virginia, according to a new presidential election poll released Thursday by Virginia Commonwealth University.

The poll, conducted July 11-19, found presumptive Democratic nominee Biden leading Trump 50% to 39% statewide and 57% to 23% in Northern Virginia.  The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points. 

The results were similar to those found in VCU's last poll, conducted in late March and early April. In that survey, Biden led Trump 51% to 40% statewide and 62% to 28% in Northern Virginia.

The poll was conducted by VCU's Center for Public Policy at the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs

In the most recent survey of 714 likely voters, Trump led in the Northwest, West and South Central regions of the state, which are reliably Republican but less populous.  Biden's margin in Northern Virginia was his largest in any region, but he also is ahead in the Tidewater region, 46% to 34%.  The survey included 246 likely voters in Northern Virginia. 

Seven percent of the Northern Virginia respondents said they would support a third-party candidate, and 13% said they haven't decided who to support or refused to answer. 

In 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won Virginia's electoral votes with 49.6% of the popular vote statewide to Trump's 44.6%.

Trump's ratings also fell in terms of how he is handling the coronavirus pandemic, according to the VCU survey. Statewide, 45% of respondents said they strongly disapprove of Trump's response, and in Northern Virginia  58% strongly disapprove.

However, voters rated the coronavirus pandemic just the third most important issue in determining their vote for president.  The economy and health care both rated higher, although among Northern Virginia respondents, health care and coronavirus were rated about equally. 

Most important issues in presidential election

The percentage of survey respondents both statewide and in Northern Virginia who identified each of the following issues as either "one of the most important" or "very important."

SOURCE: VCU Survey, July 11-19, 2020, of 714 likely voters (246 from Northern Virginia).  

Issue Virginia Northern Virginia
Economy 82% 81%
Health care 70% 72%
Coronavirus 66% 73%
Police reform 56% 64%
Immigration 55% 59%
Systemic racism 54% 64%

Among other survey topics:

- 60% of respondents said mask-wearing is helping "a lot" to slow the spread of the coronavirus in the United States, and another 20% said it is helping a little.

- 59% said changes need to be made in the country in order for Blacks to be treated as fairly as whites, while 35% said Blacks are already treated as fairly as whites.

- 52% said Confederate monuments in Virginia should either be moved to museums or taken down entirely. This was up from just 33% who answered similarly in a December 2017 survey. Only 32% in the recent survey said the monuments should be left as they are, down from 49% in the 2017 poll. 

Complete survey results are available here.

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(17) comments


You mean the “poor kids are just as intelligent as white kids” Biden; the Joe Biden that got confused between El Paso and Houston, Ohio and Iowa, Michigan and Ohio, Afghanistan and Iraq, etc. There are so many gaffes to choose from. Come on, people. We’ve got so many more qualified, cognitively intact candidates in the party than Biden. Why him?


Because anyone but Trump, and the DNC couldn't stomach Bernie's socialism. Biden wasn't my first pick and has my full support.

You can't call out his verbal gaffes, not after 4 years of supporting the idiot in chief. The hypocrisy is legendary with Trumpsters. At least many in the Republican party have already backed Biden. They saw his poll numbers and mishandling of everything, and realized we need competence now.


You could make a pretty nice pie from all those cherries you're picking.


I would rather have an incompetent man with morals who will solve issues with a team than in incompetent man with no morals who thinks he can solve everything himself, while solving nothing.


Biden doesn’t seem to have the misogynist tendencies but he does have a documented plagiarism problem. So, morally, neither takes the high ground. The truly important candidate for the party will be his VP pick.


Those are crappy talking points. The world is on fire with a malicious idiot at the helm, and all you can come up for Biden is plagiarism?


Hang it up people, InsideNova has called the race. Remember the date, July 31st, 2020 was the day the United States of America was defeated and The Socialist People's Republic of America began. "The age of man is over"


Socialism? Really? Its a bit early in the day for whatever you're drinking. You really need to cut back, you sound almost delusional.

Besides you wouldn't know a socialist even if Eugene Debs snuck up behind you and gave you a wedgie.


larrycyclons, derek005, and Brad. all use nearly the exact phrases and wording. Are you all one and the same?


Definitely a fake journalist lol. Your MAGAt 45 talking point that Biden is socialist is laughable at best. The country is already run by GOP socialists, except that the handouts go to the wealthy only.


How quickly we forget about Nov 2015 where the polls said Clinton was going to win by a landslide. Polls are garbage and that year was living proof of it. Oh, but it was Russia's fault. Laughable.


The polls were actually decently accurate, nationally they predicted a Clinton win which she did achieve in the popular vote. In terms of state polls in all the states except Wisconsin they were within the margin of error and were a tossup as to whether Trump or Clinton would win. This time there is narrow leads that Clinton had Biden is leading forcefully and while Trump can easily turn things around his actions prove otherwise.


Remember inside nova inaugurated Clinton last one too. Also 700 sample size for the whole state does not a survey make. Survey is useless.

Catherine Christine

Defend the Police. Save the children. Vote Life. Trump 2020. Respect the Flag. Anyone who claims to be religious and votes in infanticide has a Preacher who knows not that the Bible.

Catherine Christine

And if your religious leader doesn’t know that abortion and infanticide are the murder of a baby - as Gandalf would say, “Fly you fools.” “RUN.” Trump/Pence 2020!


With his son still on the board of a Chinese company, and close ties to Ukraine, Biden will prove a strong leader for America. He should pick Susan Rice as VP so she can shut down the the Durham investigation and prove she was right about a obscure online video causing Bengazi!


Trump was impeached. Trump continues to obstruct justice. Trump still hasnt released his taxes. Trump is the most corrupt official in the history of the United States.

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