Virginia test positivity rate 1.2.21

Virginia's average COVID-19 test positivity rate (yellow line) is at its highest level since mid-May. 

Virginia and two of its five health regions hit new highs Saturday for average daily COVID-19 cases reported, the state wrapped up one of its worst weeks yet in terms of deaths from the virus, and test positivity rates are rising rapidly.

The Virginia Department of Health reported 3,989 new cases of coronavirus on Saturday, following 5,182 on Friday. That brought the state's seven-day average of new cases to 4,168.3, breaking the previous high set on Christmas Day.   The average is up 9.7% in the  past week, 19.8% in the past two weeks and 87% in the past month. 

Virginia's Central and Northwest health districts both also set new record highs for seven-day averages, at 705 and 744.6 cases, respectively. In Northern Virginia, the seven-day average stands at 1,084.6, just below the record of 1,124.4, set Dec. 12.  The health department reported 1,241 new cases in the region on Saturday, following 1,336 on Friday.

With 49 new deaths from COVID-19 reported statewide Friday and another 36 on Saturday, the total over the past week is 277, one of the worst weeks since the pandemic began. In Northern Virginia, 12 new deaths were reported over the  two-day period: six in Fairfax County, two apiece in Loudoun and Prince William counties, and one apiece in Arlington County and Alexandria.

Northern Virginia data by locality (Jan. 2, 2021)

SOURCE: Virginia Department of Health

Locality Cases Hospitalizations Deaths
Alexandria 7,372 436 88
Arlington 9,145 666 181
Fairfax 45,157 2,974 685
Fairfax City 305 26 10
Falls Church 182 18 6
Loudoun 14,481 654 161
Manassas 2,945 147 29
Manassas Park 944 65 8
Prince William 26,178 1,225 262
Totals 106,709 6,211 1,430
County/City Cases Hospitalizations Deaths
Fredericksburg 1,059 67 11
Spotsylvania 4,901 212 67
Stafford 5,387 231 25
Fauquier 2,455 93 28
Culpeper 3,037 135 23

Meanwhile, test positivity rates are soaring throughout the region and statewide. The statewide average seven-day rate of 14.8% is now closer to its peak of 20.6% than to its lowest point of 4.5%.  In Northern Virginia, Alexandria's rate is now above 10%, and the Prince William health district's rate has soared above 20%.    Experts believe that test positivity rates above 10% generally mean that not all cases of the virus are being identified. 

Seven-day average test positivity rate by health district (Jan. 2, 2021)

SOURCE: Virginia Department of Health

Health District Peak Low Current Trend
Alexandria 40.1% / April 23 3.2% / Oct. 18 10.1% Up
Arlington 42.8% / April 20 2.4% / June 26 9.8% Up
Fairfax 38.6% / April 22 3.3% / Oct. 16 13.6% Up
Loudoun 27.9% / April 28 4.0% / Sept. 30 & Oct. 3 15.9% Up
Prince William 36.7% / April 18 5.4% / Oct. 20 20.1% Up
Rappahannock 17.2% / May 8 3.5% / July 3 16.3% Up
Statewide 20.6% / April 22 4.5% / Sept. 30, Oct. 1,2,12 & 13 14.8% Up

The Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association reported Saturday that 2,710 patients are hospitalized statewide for treatment of COVID-19, down slightly from Friday's record high of 2,754.  In Northern Virginia, 596 patients are hospitalized, still below the region's high of 808 on April 30. 

The health department's data show that as of Friday, at least 81,770 Virginians had received the first doses of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, both of which require two doses to be fully effective.  That's less than 25% of the 388,000 doses of the vaccines the state has received. 


New Cases/Deaths

  • Northern Virginia: 1,241 new cases, 12 new deaths Friday and Saturday combined. 

  • Statewide: 3,989 new cases, 36 new deaths.

  • Statewide Testing: 46,619 PCR diagnostic test results.     

Overall Total

  • Northern Virginia: 106,709 cases, 1,430 deaths  

  • Statewide: 358,755 cases, 5,117 deaths

  • Statewide Testing: 4.34 million PCR diagnostic tests (5.2 million when including antibody and antigen tests)  

  • Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) cases: 13 

*Provided by Virginia Department of Health. The health department's COVID-19 data is updated each morning by 10 a.m. and includes reports by local health agencies before 5 p.m. the previous day.

Statewide Hospital and Nursing Home Data

  • Hospitalizations: 2,710 (down from 2,754 the previous day)

  • Peak Hospitalizations: 2,754 reached Jan. 1

  • Patients in ICU: 557 (same as the previous day and the most ever)

  • Patients Discharged: 31,182 total

  • Nursing Home Patients: 1,870 (up from 1,788 on Thursday and the most since June 23) 

*Provided by Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association

For updated national and international COVID-19 data, visit the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus dashboard

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