The number of new COVID-19 cases has risen nearly 30% in Northern Virginia this week and is up 14% statewide.  

While numbers are still below the levels at this time in 2020 -- before vaccines were available -- they appear to be increasing at about the same pace as they did heading into the winter holiday last year.  Cases peaked in mid-January before declining as vaccines became available. They again increased in the late summer but declined from mid-September through earlier this month. 

Northern Virginia's seven-day average of new cases is now 344.1, the highest level since exactly a month ago, Oct. 19.  It had been as low as 230.9 on Nov. 5. The average is still 30.6% below its level on this date last year, but it appears to be increasing at about the same rate as in 2020.

Statewide, the seven-day case average stands at 1,517.6 per day. That's the highest average since Oct. 25. On Wednesday, over 2,500 new cases were reported statewide, the most in a single day since Oct. 7. The statewide average is 16.7% below the level on this date last year, but, as with Northern Virginia, that gap hasn't changed much in the past week. 

Tracking the recent increase in cases, hospitalizations for treatment of the virus also have generally been stable over the past week since falling sharply from their Delta variant peak of 2,211 patients in mid-September. As of Friday, 847 patients were hospitalized statewide, up from 825 a week earlier, although the seven-day average was largely unchanged. Hospitalizations are now 46% below the same date last year.  

The state reported 171 new COVID-related deaths this week, the lowest level in over two months as deaths related to the Delta surge continue to decline slowly. Deaths are a trailing indicator, however, because they often take several weeks to report and verify. 

Of this week's reported deaths, 16 were in Northern Virginia: eight in Fairfax County, four in Prince William County, two in Loudoun County and one apiece in the cities of Alexandria and Fairfax.  

Northern Virginia data by locality (Nov. 19, 2021)

SOURCE: Virginia Department of Health

Locality Cases Hospitalizations Deaths New cases this week New cases last week
Alexandria 14,647 624 153 123 124
Arlington 19,221 936 274 231 224
Fairfax 93,639 4,280 1,176 732 480
Fairfax City 1,088 73 35 169 155
Falls Church 702 28 14 63 50
Loudoun 35,260 1,211 303 478 327
Manassas 5,210 217 53 57 39
Manassas Park 1,285 73 14 -1 2
Prince William 56,495 2,032 578 557 460
Totals 227,547 9,474 2,600 2,409 1,861
County/City Cases Hospitalizations Deaths New cases this week New cases this week
Fredericksburg 3,136 118 26 19 21
Spotsylvania 15,805 442 159 227 222
Stafford 16,685 469 109 239 224
Fauquier 7,318 299 88 122 105
Culpeper 6,789 233 88 98 100

No reportable outbreaks are currently listed by the health department as being in progress in Northern Virginia, which had over 20 identifiable outbreaks a month ago.   

The health department's dashboard tracking the number of breakthrough infections shows that between Jan. 17 and Nov. 13, 13,651 infections had been reported in fully vaccinated people in Northern Virginia, resulting in 59 deaths.  Statewide, 56,779 such infections had been reported, or slightly over 10% of the 500,000 overall cases reported in that time.  The health department says the data show that unvaccinated people are 4.7 times more likely to develop COVID-19 than fully vaccinated individuals and are 4.4 times more likely to die from COVID-19. 

The health department's vaccination dashboard shows that the average number of doses administered per day increased again this week to over 40,000 a day, as vaccines began to be administered to 5- to 11-year-olds and more individuals received booster shots.  That's at a level not seen since May. Vaccinations were as high as 86,000 a day in late March, but had fallen to about 12,000 a day in mid-summer.

As of Friday, over 12.32 million vaccine doses had been administered to Virginians, and third doses have been administered to over 1 million Virginia residents. Over 116,000 children ages 5 to 11 have now received at least one dose, representing about 16% of that age group.  

Overall, 73% of all Virginians have now received at least one dose of a vaccine, and 64.3% are considered fully vaccinated.

Along with the recent rise in cases, average positivity rate for diagnostic COVID-19 tests both statewide and in Northern Virginia have ticked up in the past week.  All Northern Virginia health districts except Prince William still have rates below 5%, which experts generally believe indicates the spread of the virus is under control.

Seven-day average test positivity rate by health district (Nov. 19, 2021)

SOURCE: Virginia Department of Health

Health District Peak Low Current Trend
Alexandria 40.1% / April 23, 2020 0.8% / July 3 3.2% Up
Arlington 42.8% / April 20, 2020 0.3% / June 22 3.0% Up
Fairfax 38.6% / April 22, 2020 0.7% / July 1 & 2 3.8% Up
Loudoun 27.9% / April 28, 2020 0.5% / June 20, 21, 22, 23 4.4% Up
Prince William 36.7% / April 18, 2020 1.1% / June 20 5.4% Up
Rappahannock 19.2% / Jan. 7 1.3% / June 20 9.8% Down
Statewide 20.6% / April 22, 2020 1.3% / June 25 5.8% Up


New Cases/Deaths (Seven days ending Friday, Nov. 19)

  • Northern Virginia: 2,409 new cases (up from 1,861 prior week); 16 new deaths (up from 9 prior week)  

  • Statewide: 10,623 new cases (up from 9,295 prior week); 171 new deaths (down from 196 prior week)

  • Statewide Testing: 128,610 PCR diagnostic test results (down from 128,921 prior week)     

Overall Totals

  • Northern Virginia: 227,547 cases, 2,600 deaths  

  • Statewide: 953,460 cases, 14,492 deaths

  • Statewide Testing: 10.3 million PCR diagnostic tests (14.42 million when including antibody and antigen tests)  

  • Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) cases: 109 (including 14 in Fairfax, 11 in Prince William, two in Loudoun and Alexandria and one in Arlington). Two new cases reported statewide this week.

*Provided by Virginia Department of Health. The health department's COVID-19 data is updated each morning (Monday through Friday) by 10 a.m. and includes reports by local health agencies before 5 p.m. the previous day.

Statewide Hospital Data (as of Friday, Nov. 19):

  • Hospitalizations: 847(up from 825 on Nov. 12)

  • Peak Hospitalizations: 3,209 reached Jan. 13

  • Patients in ICU: 202 (down from 208 on Nov. 12)

  • Patients Discharged: 72,900 (356 this week)

*Provided by Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association

For updated national and international COVID-19 data, visit the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus dashboard.

Editor's note: InsideNoVa is providing regular COVID-19 updates every week. For daily reports, visit the Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 dashboard


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(1) comment

Duke Nukem

Congratulations democrat voters. The death count from this year has surpassed last year with a whimper. Proof that to the democrats "God's gift to the left" is in fact a gift and just a tool to obtain power. Imagine if Trump had won a second term and all the normies were actually educated and didn't vote for Biden? We would still have daily death counts here on our humble website. I am sure next year with the new VA Governor coming in we'll see in influx of negative blog posts.

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