Virginia case chart 5.3.21

Virginia's seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases has fallen below 1,000 for the first time since Oct. 20.  

The number of new COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations for treatment of the virus continue to fall dramatically in Virginia and Northern Virginia, with hospitalizations nearing their lowest levels ever. 

The Virginia Department of Health reported only 138 new cases of coronavirus in Northern Virginia on Monday. That is the lowest single-day total since Oct. 7 and brings the region's seven-day average down to 214.1, also the lowest since Oct. 7, which was about the time that the fall surge in cases began.

Meanwhile, only 183 patients were hospitalized in the region as of Monday morning for treatment of the virus, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association. That ties Oct. 5 as the lowest number since that data began to be reported in early April 2020.  Statewide, 822 patients were hospitalized Monday, the fewest since July 6, when a record low of 783 were hospitalized. 

The health department reported 611 new cases statewide on Monday, also the fewest since Oct. 7, and the state's seven-day average of new cases fell below 1,000, to 999.4, for the first time since Oct. 20. After plateauing for about a month -- from mid-March through mid-April -- the state's average caseload is now down 31% in the past two weeks. 

Along with the decline in new cases, average test positivity rates also are nearing record lows.  The state's seven-day average currently stands at 4.6%, just slightly above its all-time low of 4.5% hit several times early last fall.  In Northern Virginia, both the Fairfax and Prince William health districts have tied their low average rates of last fall.  Experts generally believe that test positivity rates below 5% indicate the spread of the virus is under control.

Seven-day average diagnostic test positivity rate by health district (May 3, 2021)

SOURCE: Virginia Department of Health

Health District Peak Low Current Trend
Alexandria 40.1% / April 23 3.2% / Oct. 18 & March 16 3.3% Down
Arlington 42.8% / April 20 2.4% / June 26 3.1% Down
Fairfax 38.6% / April 22 3.3% / Oct. 16 & May 3 3.3% Down
Loudoun 27.9% / April 28 4.0% / Sept. 30 & Oct. 3 5.1% Down
Prince William 36.7% / April 18 5.4% / Oct. 20 & May 3 5.4% Down
Rappahannock 19.2% / Jan. 7 3.5% / July 3 7.6% Stable
Statewide 20.6% / April 22 4.5% / Sept. 30, Oct. 1,2,12 & 13 4.6% Down

One sign of concern, however, is a notable decline in the number of vaccinations statewide per day.  That seven-day average has fallen to below 70,000 for the first time since March 27, according to the Virginia Department of Health's vaccine dashboard.

About 32% of the state's 8.6 million residents are fully vaccinated, and a total of about 3.85 million Virginians, or over 45%, have received at least one dose. The percentage of adults who have received at least one dose is higher as vaccines have not been approved for anyone under age 16.

In addition, the health department reports that another 338,000 doses of vaccines have been administered in Virginia by the federal government. These numbers include doses administered by the Federal Bureau of Prisons and the Department of Defense.   

Deaths related to COVID-19 continue to slow, with 37 reported statewide in the past three days.  Just two of those were in Northern Virginia -- one apiece in Arlington and Prince William counties

Northern Virginia data by locality (May 3, 2021)

SOURCE: Virginia Department of Health

Locality Cases Hospitalizations Deaths
Alexandria 11,683 557 133
Arlington 15,130 830 253
Fairfax 75,994 3,953 1,073
Fairfax City 550 47 19
Falls Church 424 22 9
Loudoun 27,411 1,034 274
Manassas 4,307 170 47
Manassas Park 1,214 69 12
Prince William 44,701 1,609 482
Totals 181,414 8,291 2,302
County/City Cases Hospitalizations Deaths
Fredericksburg 2,098 102 23
Spotsylvania 9,757 304 116
Stafford 11,113 354 76
Fauquier 4,631 196 64
Culpeper 4,553 188 61


New Cases/Deaths (Monday)

  • Northern Virginia: 138 new cases, 1 new death.   

  • Statewide: 611 new cases, 16 new deaths.

  • Statewide Testing: 10,541 PCR diagnostic test results.     

Overall Total

  • Northern Virginia: 181,414 cases, 2,302 deaths  

  • Statewide: 661,925 cases, 10,807 deaths

  • Statewide Testing: 7.08 million PCR diagnostic tests (9.29 million when including antibody and antigen tests)  

  • Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) cases: 65 (including 11 in Fairfax, 10 in Prince William, two in Loudoun and Alexandria and one in Arlington). 

*Provided by Virginia Department of Health. The health department's COVID-19 data is updated each morning by 10 a.m. and includes reports by local health agencies before 5 p.m. the previous day.

Statewide Hospital and Nursing Home Data

  • Hospitalizations: 822 (down from 858 the previous day)

  • Peak Hospitalizations: 3,209 reached Jan. 13

  • Patients in ICU: 224 (up from 218 the previous day)

  • Patients Discharged: 54,770

  • Nursing Home Patients: 98 as of Friday (no report Saturday, Sunday or Monday)

*Provided by Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association

For updated national and international COVID-19 data, visit the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus dashboard.

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(3) comments

Abbey Sinclair

Reality Check: As of May 5th about 1/3 of adult Arlington residents have been fully vaccinated and many 30-something and 40-something Arlington residents who haven't been vaccinated at all are showing up at ERs with serious CV symptoms.

Duke Nukem

Thanks operation warp speed and the 2020 vaccines.

John Dutko

OWS basically eliminated the bureaucratic nature of vaccine development, speeding up the process for emergency FDA approval.

It's all moot if people do not take the vaccine.

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