VA Covid Surge Map 8.20.21

All but two of Virginia's 35 health districts are experiencing a surge in COVID-19 cases, according to the Biocomplexity Institute at the University of Virginia.  The Fairfax and Alexandria districts (in orange) are experiencing slow growth. 

The number of Virginians hospitalized with COVID-19 is now essentially the same as it was a year ago, when no vaccine was available for the virus, as cases continue to rise across the state and in Northern Virginia. 

The Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association reported Friday that 1,265 people were being treated in hospitals statewide with suspected or confirmed cases of COVID-19, and the number was as high as 1,289 on Thursday. On Aug. 20 last year, 1,266 patients were hospitalized. 

Although that is still well below the January peak of over 3,200 patients, hospitalizations had fallen as low as 195 on July 5. The number of hospitalizations is up 75% in the past two weeks. 

The Virginia Health Department changed its COVID-19 dashboards this week and is no longer providing the number of hospitalizations by health district.  

Editorial: COVID-19 outbreaks are back; details aren’t

The number of cases continues to rise across Virginia and is now 160% above the levels of a year ago statewide and about 48% above last year's levels in Northern Virginia, which has fared somewhat better than the rest of the state in the recent surge. 

As of Friday the state's seven-day average of new cases is 2,321.9, the highest since Feb. 18. The number of cases reported Friday, 2,792, was the most in any day since Feb. 13. 

In its weekly report Friday, the University of Virginia's Biocomplexity Institute says 33 of the state's 35 health districts are experiencing a surge in cases.  The only health districts not in surge are Fairfax County and Alexandria.  The institute continues to project that the number of new cases by mid-September could rival the January peak of over 6,000 a day.  

In Northern Virginia, the seven-day average of new cases as of Friday was 357.1, the highest since April 19. The region's average was as low as 16.9 in mid-June.   

However, seven-day case averages are higher in all four of the state's other health regions: the Eastern (680), Central (470), Southwest (443) and Northwest (371).  

InsideNoVa analysis of health department data available through Aug. 13 shows that only about 5.3% of the over 13,000 new cases reported that week were among fully vaccinated individuals. Updated data was not available for this week.     

The pace of vaccinations statewide remains at about 14,600 a day, according to the state's vaccination dashboard.    It was as low as 11,000 a day in early July but had been as high as 86,000 a day in late March. 

Over 9.76 million vaccine doses have been administered to Virginians, with 66.6% of the adult population and 55.6% of the total population now fully vaccinated.

The state's average positivity rate for diagnostic tests has increased to just below the 10% level, at which point experts believe the spread of the virus is out of control and not all cases are being captured.  Northern Virginia positivity rates remain significantly below the state level, however. 

Seven-day average test positivity rates by health district (Aug. 20, 2021)

Health District Peak Low Current Trend
Alexandria 40.1% / April 23, 2020 0.8% / July 3 4.8% Up
Arlington 42.8% / April 20, 2020 0.3% / June 22 3.5% Stable
Fairfax 38.6% / April 22, 2020 0.7% / July 1 & 2 5.2% Up
Loudoun 27.9% / April 28, 2020 0.5% / June 20, 21, 22, 23 4.6% Stable
Prince William 36.7% / April 18, 2020 1.1% / June 20 7.0% Stable
Rappahannock 19.2% / Jan. 7 1.3% / June 20 10.7% Up
Statewide 20.6% / April 22, 2020 1.3% / June 25 9.1% Up

Statewide, 48 deaths related to COVID-19 were reported this week, the most since the week ending June 18.  Deaths tend to be a lagging indicator and can often take several weeks to verify and report; throughout the pandemic, deaths have begun to increase three to four weeks after an increase in cases. In Northern Virginia, four new deaths were reported this week: one apiece in Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun counties and the city of Manassas.   

Northern Virginia data by locality (Aug. 20, 2021)

SOURCE: Virginia Department of Health 

Locality Cases Hospitalizations Deaths New cases this week New cases last week
Alexandria 12,558 587 141 168 150
Arlington 16,236 881 259 230 237
Fairfax 81,115 4,148 1,128 1,103 910
Fairfax City 585 49 19 6 5
Falls Church 446 21 8 5 7
Loudoun 29,644 1,123 284 328 407
Manassas 4,458 188 49 57 38
Manassas Park 1,240 69 11 7 1
Prince William 48,067 1,769 514 596 548
Totals 194,349 8,835 2,413 2,500 2,303
County/City Cases Hospitalizations Deaths
Fredericksburg 2,321 108 25 50 40
Spotsylvania 11,186 353 126 282 252
Stafford 12,597 398 85 316 260
Fauquier 5,274 218 71 141 117
Culpeper 5,025 184 69 82 100

A new case of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, or MIS-C, was reported this week in Prince William County.  The syndrome is believed to be related to the COVID-19 virus.  That's the 11th case in Prince William and the 81st statewide since the pandemic began, but none has resulted in a death. 


New Cases/Deaths (Seven days ending Friday, Aug. 20)

  • Northern Virginia: 2,500 new cases (up from 2,303 prior week); 4 new deaths (up from 1 prior week)  

  • Statewide: 16,253 new cases (up from 13,162 prior week), 48 new deaths (up from 41 prior week)

  • Statewide Testing: 126,662 PCR diagnostic test results (up from 118,981 prior week)     

Overall Totals

  • Northern Virginia: 194,349 cases, 2,413 deaths  

  • Statewide: 734,079 cases, 11,647 deaths

  • Statewide Testing: 8.32 million PCR diagnostic tests (11.18 million when including antibody and antigen tests)  

  • Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) cases: 81 (including 14 in Fairfax, 11 in Prince William, two in Loudoun and Alexandria and one in Arlington); 1 new case reported this week statewide. 

*Provided by Virginia Department of Health. The health department's COVID-19 data is updated each morning (Monday through Friday) by 10 a.m. and includes reports by local health agencies before 5 p.m. the previous day.

Statewide Hospital Data (as of Friday, Aug. 20)

  • Hospitalizations: 1,265 (up from 1,029  on Aug. 13)

  • Peak Hospitalizations: 3,209 reached Jan. 13

  • Patients in ICU: 344 (up from 261 on Aug. 13) 

  • Patients Discharged: 59,668 (917 this week)

*Provided by Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association

For updated national and international COVID-19 data, visit the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus dashboard.

Editor's note: InsideNoVa is providing regular COVID-19 updates every week. For daily reports, visit the Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 dashboard

Fairfax County schools mandate staff COVID-19 vaccines or negative tests
Fairfax County government mandates employee COVID-19 vaccines or weekly tests


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(9) comments

Zed Rahl

Hmmmmm ... last week you had an article on how prince Williams diversity was at record levels and now we see this article about COVID hospitalizations reaching last years levels ... connected somehow???? I wonder

Tim True

Hmmmmm…… NO. The dire COVID situation is strictly because of those who refuse to get vaccinated, which is unfortunately pushing us all backwards.

Janelle Anderson

Thank you InsideNova for pointing out that the VDH has stopped reporting the locality of Covid outbreaks. Why would VDH do that, I wonder?

Three days ago I learned a Virginia Delegate from Fairfax County, Mark Sickles, introduced a law to force VDH to report the exact location of Covid outbreaks. VDH did this previously but stopped as of July 1, 2021, because they law forcing them to expired. Transparency is good. I can't think of any good reason why the location of Covid cases or outbreaks should be obscured by VDH.

Many parents are discussing how they feel about their kids returning to school amidst the spike of Covid cases due to the Delta variant. If you are interested in joining a discussion about Prince William County Schools please try the Our Schools group on Facebook.

John Dutko

...You answered your own question. The law expired. There was no valid compulsory law to provide the data.

This article will explain all the nuances regarding the technicalities:

Brad London

Virus will virus. Just look at the data. Compare states with strict masking and lockdowns to those that were more wide open throughout. The graphs look the same. The data tells the story. Focus on per capita.

John Dutko

Care to share that data?

Otherwise, you are blowing smoke up our arses just to be a troll.

Janet Smith

What did everyone expect after several weekends of back-to-school partying with the partyers not wearing masks and many not vaccinated?

George Lawton

LOL… all you idiot libtards keep getting the ‘vaccine’ trust the system, obey, wear a mask…what a weak pathetic cowardly society.

John Dutko

One of the most important things I have learned in life is how a bully projects their own insecurities.

I pity you and feel sorry for your parents that they couldn't raise a functioning and contributing member of society.

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