Virginia COVID-19 case chart 10.1.21

The state's seven-day average of new daily COVID-19 cases reported has dropped back to levels last seen in late August -- but still well above the same time last year. 

The surge of the Delta variant of COVID-19 is noticeably waning in Northern Virginia and the rest of the state, according to new data from the Virginia Department of Health. 

Average new daily cases reported in Northern Virginia are down about 12% in the past week, to a seven-day average of 413, although that is still more than double the average on Oct. 1, 2020, before any vaccine was available. 

Statewide, the seven-day average of new daily cases has fallen 14% in the past week and 23% in the past two weeks to 2,780.4. That's the lowest level since late August but still over 2 1/2 times the level on this date in 2020. 

Meanwhile, the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association reported that hospitalizations for treatment of COVID-19 have declined 9.9% in the past week, to 1,898 patients as of Friday. Just 10 days ago, on Sept. 21, 2,211 patients were being treated. Like cases, however, hospitalizations remain high, and Mary Washington Hospital Center is at capacity because of the surge of COVID-19 patients and is delaying some surgeries. Hospitalizations fell as low as 195 in early July.

Sentara has begun releasing COVID-19 patient data for its hospitals across Virginia, including Sentara Northern Virginia Regional Medical Center in Woodbridge. That facility reported 18 confirmed positive COVID-19 cases as of Friday, representing 12% of all inpatients but down from over 30 COVID-19 patients in early September.  

Reported deaths related to the summer surge of the Delta variant continue to rise, as deaths are a lagging indicator. The state reported 295 new COVID-related deaths this week, the most since the week ending March 12.  Of those, 20 were in Northern Virginia, the most in the region since the week ending April 9: six in Prince William County, four in Alexandria, three in Loudoun County, two apiece in Arlington County, Fairfax County and the city of Manassas, and one in Fairfax City. 

Northern Virginia data by locality (Oct. 1, 2021)

SOURCE: Virginia Department of Health

Locality Cases Hospitalizations Deaths New cases this week New cases last week
Alexandria 13,674 609 147 161 177
Arlington 17,799 906 264 228 232
Fairfax 88,464 4,227 1,152 1,108 1,275
Fairfax City 634 49 20 8 6
Falls Church 519 21 8 9 8
Loudoun 32,793 1,168 291 485 654
Manassas 4,860 213 51 99 74
Manassas Park 1,259 70 12 2 5
Prince William 52,702 1,924 541 796 862
Totals 212,704 9,187 2,486 2,896 3,293
County/City Cases Hospitalizations Deaths New cases this week New cases last week
Fredericksburg 2,877 112 25 75 94
Spotsylvania 13,885 407 140 384 489
Stafford 15,011 437 100 315 357
Fauquier 6,458 264 81 157 166
Culpeper 6,064 202 75 146 213

Northern Virginia's seven-day average of new cases remains below that in all four other regions of Virginia, which all have fewer residents, although cases are trending downward in all regions:

  • Southwest: 695, down from 822 last Friday
  • Eastern: 596, down from 732 last Friday
  • Northwest: 576, down from 681 last Friday
  • Central: 498, down from 533 last Friday

Meanwhile, updated data on selected outbreaks across the state show three new outbreaks in progress in Northern Virginia:

  • Promedica Skilled Nursing and Rehabilitation, a nursing home in Fairfax County, 22 positive cases, reported Sept. 13
  • Manor Care Health Services, a nursing home in Arlington, between two and four cases and between one and four deaths, reported Sept. 21.
  • Goodwin House, a full continuum community in Alexandria, between two and four positive cases, reported Sept. 20. Goodwin has had no positive cases across residents or staff as of Friday, a spokesperson said.

One other previously reported outbreak in Fairfax remains in progress: Harmony at Spring Hill, nine confirmed cases and between one and four deaths (both numbers the same as last week).

The health department's dashboard tracking the number of breakthrough infections show that between Jan. 17 and Sept. 25, 7,663 infections had been reported in fully vaccinated people in Northern Virginia, resulting in 26 deaths.  Statewide, 27,300 such infections had been reported, a small percentage of the nearly 440,000 overall cases reported in that time. 

The health department says the data show that unvaccinated people are 7.9 times more likely to develop COVID-19 than fully vaccinated individuals and are 7.9 times more likely to die from COVID-19. 

The pace of vaccinations statewide has continued to decline and is at an average of 12,248 a day, according to the state's vaccination dashboard. Vaccinations were as low as 11,000 a day in early July but had been as high as 86,000 a day in late March.

As of Thursday, over 10.57 million vaccine doses had been administered to Virginians, with 71.8% of the adult population and 60.3% of the total population now fully vaccinated.  

As case rates have fallen over the past two weeks, so have average positivity rate for diagnostic COVID-19 tests both statewide and in Northern Virginia.  Rates below 5% generally indicate the spread of the virus is under control. 

Seven-day average test positivity rate by health district (Oct. 1, 2021)

SOURCE: Virginia Department of Health

Health District Peak Low Current Trend
Alexandria 40.1% / April 23, 2020 0.8% / July 3 3.1% Stable
Arlington 42.8% / April 20, 2020 0.3% / June 22 2.5% Down
Fairfax 38.6% / April 22, 2020 0.7% / July 1 & 2 3.9% Down
Loudoun 27.9% / April 28, 2020 0.5% / June 20, 21, 22, 23 5.2% Down
Prince William 36.7% / April 18, 2020 1.1% / June 20 7.3% Up
Rappahannock 19.2% / Jan. 7 1.3% / June 20 11.8% Down
Statewide 20.6% / April 22, 2020 1.3% / June 25 8.8% Down


New Cases/Deaths (Seven days ending Friday, Oct. 1)

  • Northern Virginia: 2,896 new cases (down from 3,293 prior week); 20 new deaths (up from 10 prior week)  

  • Statewide: 19,463 new cases (down from 22,668 prior week), 295 new deaths (up from 269 prior week)

  • Statewide Testing: 197,905 PCR diagnostic test results (up from 145,817 prior week)     

Overall Totals

  • Northern Virginia: 212,704 cases, 2,486 deaths  

  • Statewide: 869,328 cases, 12,806 deaths

  • Statewide Testing: 9.32 million PCR diagnostic tests (12.85 million when including antibody and antigen tests)  

  • Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) cases: 88 (including 14 in Fairfax, 11 in Prince William, two in Loudoun and Alexandria and one in Arlington). Three new cases reported statewide this week.

*Provided by Virginia Department of Health. The health department's COVID-19 data is updated each morning (Monday through Friday) by 10 a.m. and includes reports by local health agencies before 5 p.m. the previous day.

Statewide Hospital Data (as of Friday, Oct. 1)

  • Hospitalizations: 1,898 (down from 2,106 on Sept. 24)

  • Peak Hospitalizations: 3,209 reached Jan. 13

  • Patients in ICU: 512 (down from 557 on Sept. 24)

  • Patients Discharged: 68,609 (2,238 this week)

*Provided by Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association

For updated national and international COVID-19 data, visit the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus dashboard.

Editor's note: InsideNoVa is providing regular COVID-19 updates every week. For daily reports, visit the Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 dashboard




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(6) comments

Brad London

why is this breaking news? It's clearly not. This has been waning for a couple weeks. You guys/gals are right on top of things aren't you?

Angela Mcilwain

Meanwhile our Marines at Quantico and suffering a major outbreak 😢 💔

Harry Morant

Uh-OH! Time for a NEW variant! “Paging Dr. Fauci, Paging Dr. Fauci, more lying required to keep the BIG LIE from going on a ventilator!” (For the thick headed & “educated” DemonRATs, the lie is that you need a vaccine to survive a virus that is 99% survivable WITHOUT a vaccine!)

Fang Fang

John Dutko

Too true!

Especially since Rand Paul is not a real eye-doctor but claims to know more than a verified epidemiologist!

Fauci knows nothing. I mean, with over 40 years of experience in the field of contagious diseases, he thinks he can tell us Republicans what to do! The nerve of that guy. Why, I bet he is deliberately trying to kill off us Republicans by doing some doublespeak regarding the vaccines. But we will show him.

We can be so brave with our open nose and throat, and gosh darnit, we have the RIGHT to spread the virus however we see fit. And us unvaccinated are ENTITLED to an ICU bed since we don't need to listen to "medical experts".

John Dutko

Hells yea!

As a Republican, it's my right to drink a gallon of mayonnaise and smoke a pack of cigarettes a day to prove that comorbidities don't phase me. My immune system will protect me and everyone around me. Hell, my freedom will prove to these DemonRATS that they live in a bubble and the MAINSTREAM MEDIA is all fake news. I mean, if all the news organizations say it, and I don't agree with it, the information HAS to be fake news, right?

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