Va COVID death chart 10.8.21

Deaths related to COVID-19 topped 13,000 statewide this week, although the increase following the Delta variant surge has not been as pronounced as that following the surge of cases last winter. 

Even though COVID-19 cases continue to fall across Northern Virginia and the state, the Delta variant has triggered significant new outbreaks in four public schools and three nursing homes or assisted-living communities across the region, the Virginia Department of Health reported Friday.   

Updated data on selected outbreaks across the state show one new outbreak in progress in a Loudoun County school and three in Prince William County schools:

  • Willard Middle School in the Aldie area of Loudoun, 30 positive cases, reported to the health department on Sept. 27.
  • Sudley Elementary School in Prince William, 22 positive cases, reported Sept. 15.
  • Potomac High School in Prince William, 11 cases, reported Sept. 14.
  • Yorkshire Elementary School in Prince William, five cases, reported Sept. 21.

In addition, three new outbreaks were reported as being in progress at senior-living communities in Fairfax:

  • Greenspring Senior Living Community, an assisted-living facility, 28 positive cases and between one and four deaths, reported to the health department Sept. 17.
  • ManorCare Health Services of Alexandria, a nursing home, 26 positive cases, reported Sept. 13.
  • ManorCare Health Services of Fair Oaks, a nursing home, 14 positive cases, reported Sept. 8. 

Meanwhile, another outbreak at Burke Health and Rehabilitation Center in Fairfax that was initially reported in August is marked as "pending closure," but 65 positive cases have now been reported there and between one and four deaths. 

Overall, the number of COVID-19 cases continues to slow and hospitalizations for treatment of the virus are now down significantly as well, according to new data from the health department.  

Average new daily cases reported in Northern Virginia are down about 10% in the past week and 25% from their mid-September peak to a seven-day average of 371, although that is still 72% above the average on Oct. 8, 2020, before any vaccine was available. 

Statewide, the seven-day average of new daily cases has fallen slightly less sharply this week, down 3.2%, but is still down 17% in the past two weeks to 2,690.1. That's still more than twice the level on this date in 2020. 

Meanwhile, the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association reported that hospitalizations for treatment of COVID-19 have declined 12% in the past week, to 1,671 patients as of Friday. That's nearly 25% below the Sept. 21 Delta variant peak of 2,211 patients. However, hospitalizations were as low as 195 in early July.

Sentara has begun releasing COVID-19 patient data for its hospitals across Virginia, including Sentara Northern Virginia Regional Medical Center in Woodbridge. That facility reported 18 confirmed positive COVID-19 cases as of Friday, the same as a week earlier. That represents 12% of all inpatients but is down from over 30 COVID-19 patients in early September.  

Reported deaths related to the summer surge of the Delta variant fell slightly this week, but are still relatively high, and the total number of deaths from COVID-19 topped 13,000 this week. Of those, 2,499 have been in the Northern Virginia region.

The state reported 269 new COVID-related deaths this week. Of those, 13 were in Northern Virginia: six in Fairfax County, three in Prince William County, two in Arlington County, and one apiece in Loudoun County and the city of Alexandria.   

Northern Virginia data by locality (Oct. 8, 2021)

SOURCE: Virginia Department of Health

Locality Cases Hospitalizations Deaths New cases this week New cases last week
Alexandria 13,850 612 148 176 161
Arlington 18,046 910 266 247 228
Fairfax 89,473 4,248 1,158 1,009 1,108
Fairfax City 638 49 20 4 8
Falls Church 530 22 8 11 9
Loudoun 33,175 1,179 292 382 485
Manassas 4,942 214 51 82 99
Manassas Park 1,262 70 12 3 2
Prince William 53,386 1,941 544 684 796
Totals 215,302 9,245 2,499 2,598 2,896
County/City Cases Hospitalizations Deaths New cases this week New cases this week
Fredericksburg 2,949 113 25 72 75
Spotsylvania 14,266 413 141 381 384
Stafford 15,332 442 101 321 315
Fauquier 6,636 271 82 178 157
Culpeper 6,196 206 79 132 146

Northern Virginia's seven-day average of new cases remains below that in all four other regions of Virginia, which all have fewer residents, although cases are trending downward in all regions:

  • Southwest: 677, down from 695 last Friday
  • Eastern: 594, down from 596 last Friday
  • Northwest: 564, down from 576 last Friday
  • Central: 484, down from 498 last Friday

The health department's dashboard tracking the number of breakthrough infections show that between Jan. 17 and Sept. 25, 9,189 infections had been reported in fully vaccinated people in Northern Virginia, resulting in 40 deaths.  Statewide, 34,691 such infections had been reported, a small percentage of the nearly 460,000 overall cases reported in that time. 

The health department says the data show that unvaccinated people are 6.5 times more likely to develop COVID-19 than fully vaccinated individuals and are 6.0 times more likely to die from COVID-19. 

The pace of vaccinations statewide has continued to decline and is at an average of 10,356 a day, according to the state's vaccination dashboard, the lowest level since early January as vaccines were just being rolled out. Vaccinations were as high as 86,000 a day in late March.

As of Friday, over 10.66 million vaccine doses had been administered to Virginians, with 72.4% of the adult population and 60.9% of the total population now fully vaccinated.  

As case rates have fallen over the past two weeks, so have average positivity rate for diagnostic COVID-19 tests both statewide and in Northern Virginia, where every health district except Prince William has a rate below 5%, which experts generally believe indicates the spread of the virus is under control. 

Seven-day average test positivity rate by health district (Oct. 8, 2021)

SOURCE: Virginia Department of Health

Health District Peak Low Current Trend
Alexandria 40.1% / April 23, 2020 0.8% / July 3 2.9% Down
Arlington 42.8% / April 20, 2020 0.3% / June 22 2.7% Up
Fairfax 38.6% / April 22, 2020 0.7% / July 1 & 2 3.3% Down
Loudoun 27.9% / April 28, 2020 0.5% / June 20, 21, 22, 23 4.0% Down
Prince William 36.7% / April 18, 2020 1.1% / June 20 6.1% Down
Rappahannock 19.2% / Jan. 7 1.3% / June 20 10.8% Down
Statewide 20.6% / April 22, 2020 1.3% / June 25 8.0% Down


New Cases/Deaths (Seven days ending Friday, Oct. 8)

  • Northern Virginia: 2,598 new cases (down from 2,896 prior week); 13 new deaths (down from 20 prior week)  

  • Statewide: 18,831 new cases (down from 19,463 prior week), 269 new deaths (down from 295 prior week)

  • Statewide Testing: 170,547 PCR diagnostic test results (down from 197,905 prior week)     

Overall Totals

  • Northern Virginia: 215,302 cases, 2,499 deaths  

  • Statewide: 888,159 cases, 13,075 deaths

  • Statewide Testing: 9.49 million PCR diagnostic tests (13.13 million when including antibody and antigen tests)  

  • Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) cases: 90 (including 14 in Fairfax, 11 in Prince William, two in Loudoun and Alexandria and one in Arlington). Two new cases reported statewide this week.

*Provided by Virginia Department of Health. The health department's COVID-19 data is updated each morning (Monday through Friday) by 10 a.m. and includes reports by local health agencies before 5 p.m. the previous day.

Statewide Hospital Data (as of Friday, Oct. 8)

  • Hospitalizations: 1,671 (down from 1,898 on Oct. 1)

  • Peak Hospitalizations: 3,209 reached Jan. 13

  • Patients in ICU: 443 (down from 512 on Oct. 1)

  • Patients Discharged: 69,354 (745 this week)

*Provided by Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association

For updated national and international COVID-19 data, visit the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus dashboard.

Editor's note: InsideNoVa is providing regular COVID-19 updates every week. For daily reports, visit the Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 dashboard




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(4) comments

Kermit Robat

I will preface this post with the following two comments: (1) Both I and my wife are vaccinated and have been since last spring. Our parents, grandparents and siblings are vaccinated as well. (2) I’m writing this rather lengthy post in response to the original InsideNova headline that referenced outbreaks in schools. With that said, on to the point….

In a state where there have been 13,000 total covid deaths, as of Wednesday fewer than 10 of those fatalities were children under the age of 18 (per the CDC). I don’t know the exact number because the CDC doesn’t publish exact numbers for states with fewer than 10 adolescent fatalities. In that same time 14 children have died from pneumonia. By way of comparison, in the state of Virginia there have been 381 breakthrough covid fatalities in fully vaccinated adults in just the past 9 months.

Nationally, in a demographic of 73 million children (age < 18) there have been 499 adolescent covid fatalities as of Wednesday going back to January 1st, 2020. During this time there have been more than 1000 adolescent fatalities from pneumonia. Also during this time there have been 700K total covid fatalities including 6600 breakthrough fatalities in the population of 175 million adults who are fully vaccinated.

The covid vaccines have been amazingly effective, no doubt saving millions of lives. What is even more amazing is that the only person with a lower covid risk than a fully vaccinated adult is an unvaccinated child. All this begs the question as to why we continue to do these covid fire drills making our children wear masks in school, quarantining children after possible exposures and the general sense of panic (see article headline).

I’m sure some will want to respond to this post. That would be great. I only request that you keep it civil. Thanks.

Duke Nukem

Apparently only absentee voters care about covid anymore. We have had more deaths this year than all of last year. We have full stadiums with kids and alumni chanting "let's go Brandon!" and the president can't remember what he had for breakfast unless it was ice-cream. The media stopped the counters but things are worse now with three vaccines and triple vaxxers.

John Dutko

And it's all because dumb people refused to get the vaccine and the virus mutated. And STILL whining like petulant children because they have no critical thinking skills and believe everything online.

Kermit Robat

@Duke Nukem

I would argue that the pandemic is over and we are entering the endemic phase of covid (which will be with us for the rest of our lives). Certainly the federal role of ensuring sufficient PPE and providing emergency use approval of the vaccine is done. Therapeutics will continue to come along and I believe I new anti-viral medicine is working its way through the approval process.

The federal mandates are all show, having little consequence on actual vaccination rates and doing nothing to change even one vaccine hesitant mind. Anyone who wants the vaccine can get it and a booster if they choose to. And those who don't will have to live with the consequences, if any, of that choice. There will continue to be pockets of viral outbreak, but those are state issues now.

Covid is done as far as I'm concerned and I look forward to spending the holidays with friends and family.

If you're interested, they are selling "Let's go Brandon" t-shirts over at the DailyWire.

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