The number of new COVID-19 cases in Northern Virginia is at its highest level in almost two months as the virus continues to spread despite increasing vaccination efforts.

As of Monday, the region's seven-day average of new cases stands at 458.3, its highest level since Feb. 21.  By comparison, the region's daily average was as low as 139.4 last summer, although it peaked at over 1,600 new cases a day in mid-January. 

As has occurred elsewhere as older populations received vaccines first, cases are the highest among the region's younger residents, according to demographic data tracked by the Northern Virginia Regional Commission. For example, in the week ending April 3, 38% of the region's cases were reported in residents aged 20 to 39, and another 22% were reported in residents aged 19 and under. 

In Fairfax County, eight outbreaks are currently reported in progress at daycare/pre-kindergarten centers or K-12 schools, with the worst, at South Lakes High School, resulting in 10 positive cases. Loudoun County has one such outbreak in progress, at Independence High School, while none are reported in Arlington County, Alexandria or Prince William County. 

Statewide, the seven-day average of new cases stands at 1,527.3 as of Monday.  That's up 10% in the past week and 18.5% in the past month.  

Hospitalizations for treatment of the virus have likewise plateaued statewide after falling sharply from the mid-January peak of over 3,200 patients, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association. As of Monday, 1,046 patients were hospitalized, generally in line with levels over the past three weeks. 

In Northern Virginia, 245 patients were hospitalized Monday, down from 270 last Thursday but still above the low of 195 on March 20.  

The health department has reported 50 new deaths statewide related to COVID-19 over the past four days.  Of those, 10 were in Northern Virginia -- six in Fairfax, three in Prince William and one in Alexandria. 

Northern Virginia data by locality (April 12, 2021)

SOURCE: Virginia Department of Health

Locality Cases Hospitalizations Deaths
Alexandria 11,325 545 130
Arlington 14,679 816 249
Fairfax 73,520 3,796 1,054
Fairfax City 531 46 18
Falls Church 404 20 9
Loudoun 26,243 974 273
Manassas 4,236 169 45
Manassas Park 1,177 68 12
Prince William 43,241 1,576 477
Totals 175,356 8,010 2,267
County/City Cases Hospitalizations Deaths
Fredericksburg 1,952 97 22
Spotsylvania 9,204 295 110
Stafford 10,519 340 71
Fauquier 4,456 183 63
Culpeper 4,414 182 57

The seven-day average percentage of positive diagnostic test results has stabilized in a narrow range over the past two weeks, both in the region's health districts and statewide. The health department has been reporting results of just under 20,000 diagnostic tests per day. 

Seven-day average diagnostic test positivity rate by health district (April 12, 2021)

SOURCE: Virginia Department of Health

Health District Peak Low Current Trend
Alexandria 40.1% / April 23 3.2% / Oct. 18 & March 16 4.6% Up
Arlington 42.8% / April 20 2.4% / June 26 4.0% Down
Fairfax 38.6% / April 22 3.3% / Oct. 16 5.7% Down
Loudoun 27.9% / April 28 4.0% / Sept. 30 & Oct. 3 7.7% Up
Prince William 36.7% / April 18 5.4% / Oct. 20 9.6% Down
Rappahannock 19.2% / Jan. 7 3.5% / July 3 9.4% Down
Statewide 20.6% / April 22 4.5% / Sept. 30, Oct. 1,2,12 & 13 6.1% Stable

The Virginia Department of Health's vaccine dashboard showed Monday that over 3.1 million Virginians have received at least one dose of a vaccine, representing 36.6 % of the state's population of about 8.5 million.  Because vaccines are not yet approved for children under age 16, the percentage of adults who have received at least one dose is significantly higher.

In addition, the health department reports that another 249,000 doses of vaccines have been administered in Virginia by the federal government. These numbers were previously not included in Virginia reports and include doses administered by the Federal Bureau of Prisons and the Department of Defense.  

About 21.5% of the state's residents have been fully vaccinated, either with two doses of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines or one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.  The state is currently averaging almost 75,000 doses of vaccines per day, down slightly from a peak of 83,000 a day on April 2.


New Cases/Deaths (Monday)

  • Northern Virginia: 486 new cases, 1 new death.   

  • Statewide: 1,310 new cases, 14 new deaths.

  • Statewide Testing: 12,246 PCR diagnostic test results.     

Overall Total

  • Northern Virginia: 175,356 cases, 2,267 deaths  

  • Statewide: 636,862 cases, 10,486 deaths

  • Statewide Testing: 6.71 million PCR diagnostic tests (8.74 million when including antibody and antigen tests)  

  • Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) cases: 54 (including 10 in Fairfax, seven in Prince William, two in Loudoun and one in Alexandria). 

*Provided by Virginia Department of Health. The health department's COVID-19 data is updated each morning by 10 a.m. and includes reports by local health agencies before 5 p.m. the previous day.

Statewide Hospital and Nursing Home Data

  • Hospitalizations: 1,046 (down from 1,059 the previous day)

  • Peak Hospitalizations: 3,209 reached Jan. 13

  • Patients in ICU: 249 (up from 246 the previous day)

  • Patients Discharged: 52,480

  • Nursing Home Patients: 128 as of Saturday (the fewest to date; no report Sundays or Mondays) 

*Provided by Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association

For updated national and international COVID-19 data, visit the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus dashboard.



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(5) comments

Brad London

Continued fear mongering of the unintelligent masses. Just open up. Texas and Florida have been open for almost a full year now and their numbers are better than locked down states.

Tim Dotterweich

"In Fairfax County, eight outbreaks are currently reported in progress at daycare/pre-kindergarten centers or K-12 schools, with the worst, at South Lakes High School, resulting in 10 positive cases."

In other words, 99.6% of South Lakes students have NOT tested positive for Covid-19.

Got it.

Janet Smith

According to Arlington County's own press release data no Arlington resident under 40 has died of CV 19.

John Dutko

A year later and you still do not realize what basic reproduction number (R0) is.

Julie McCandless

Reasons are not hard to discern: 1) Increased social crowding, and 2) Messed up vaccination program, i.e., populations most at risk were not and have not been fully vaccinated.

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