Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden maintains a double-digit percentage point lead in Virginia, but his supporters are more likely to see their choice as a vote against President Donald Trump than a vote for Biden, according to a new statewide poll released Thursday. 

The poll, conducted by the Center for Public Policy at the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University, found that Biden is leading Trump 51% to 39% among likely voters.  That is down just slightly from Biden's 53%-39% margin in a September poll and similar to margins in polls earlier this year. 

Biden voters are equally as likely to say their vote is an anti-Trump choice as they are to say it is pro-Biden, each with 49%. Among independent voters who support Biden, 60% said their choice is a vote against Trump, compared to 41% of Democratic voters who support Biden. Trump voters are more likely to feel their vote is for Trump, at 77%, with only 20% saying their vote is against Biden.

The survey of 803 adults was conducted between Oct. 13 and Oct. 22. The margin of error among likely voters is 4.9 percentage points, meaning that Biden's 12-point lead is outside the margin of error. 

The survey also found that Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark Warner leads Republican challenger Daniel Gade by 55% to 38%, almost exactly the same as Warner's lead in VCU's September poll. Warner is seeking his third term in Tuesday's election. 

Gender and region remain significant to the vote choice for both races. Minorities continue to show strong support for Biden and Warner with more than 7 in 10 supporting the Democrats, VCU pollsters said.

In the presidential race, women are more likely to prefer Biden over Trump (54%-36%), and men prefer Biden over Trump by a smaller margin (48%-43%). Regionally, Biden has large leads in Northern Virginia (61%-27%) and Tidewater (58%-28%), and Trump has large leads over Biden in western Virginia (62%-32%) and northwestern Virginia (55%-41%).

Independents are breaking toward Biden by 9 percentage points (47%-38%), with 11% of independents remaining undecided.

“Virginia voters are reflecting a trend toward Biden and the Democrats. This seems to be more of a vote against Trump, than a vote for Biden,” said former Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, a Democrat, after whom the VCU school is named.

Dr. Farrah Stone, director of the Commonwealth Poll at the Wilder School, said this year's polling reaffirms the shift over the past 12 years in Virginia.

"The commonwealth is less a purple state and becoming a solidly blue state,” she added.  “Still, voters for Trump are very much supportive of the president, while Biden voters are just as likely to support their candidate as they are to be anti-Trump. There is certainly a question of whether the likely Virginia voter supports Democratic policy as much as the Democratic alternative in this race.”

Full poll results and additional details are available here

See more headlines at InsideNoVa.com. Email tips to info@insidenova.com.

(15) comments

InsideCommenter

Even Republicans know Virginia is a lost cause, Trump hasn't bothered to visit the state unless it's near the North Carolina border where he can get votes down there. Virginia is a blue state now.

covid2021

Has Biden been here either? Does anyone show up when he comes out of the basement? It's clear the party of hate is just voting against America. Are you learning to die with COVID yet like your party leader wants us to do? Remember when the democrats were the party of hope and change. Now they are the party of hate and the end justifies the means.

derek005

Hey deplorable, Biden is doing things the way the CDC says to unlike Trump who has super-spreader events in which he only talks about people. He has no message on anything and you wonder why he got the virus. You can go away along with PWC and move to Russia traitors. If you support Trump, you are a racist/bigot just like he is.

TPL

You sound like a baby throwing a temper tantrum.

Citizen52

Virginia is not a “lost cause,” Inside. With that logic, you’re saying that a vote for Biden is a negative. The pendulum swings; blue/red/blue...

TPL

Virginia has been Democrat for much of its history, so that's no surprise. However, one thing Virginia has not been is a flaming leftist utopia outside of portions of modern NoVa.

PWC resident since '69

Vote your head not your hate, of course if you want “free stuff” that you will pay for with the huge tax increases you Dummies then vote for Dead Man Walking Joe Perv!

tman

Now the Trumpers are pretending to be fiscally responsible, with him on the way out? Laughable.

This article is from February before the massive stimulus bill. Don't tell us about how fiscally responsible the right has been. Standard Republican projections again.

derek005

You are just like those "poorly educated" deplorables that Trump called you. The only dummy here is you PWC! Who supports a man who is scared of Putin, is a pathological liar, racist, bigot, ignorant to true facts, insults military families and members just to name a few. Go away cause Prince William County is not as racist as you want it to be. By the way, Sleepy Joe is a man who has morals, integrity, standards, and will work for both parties.

PWC resident since '69

Please revisit the definition of morals, Biden is no where to be seen on that page.

fake_journalist

I see derek005's Zoom class is over and he's online while waiting for his mommy to make him a snack and get him a juice box...

PWC resident since '69

Hilarious!

SmartRepub

What drugs are you on? Have you listen to Biden lately? Biden says he is going to fix the virus....by doing everything Trump has all ready done. He is going to get rid of tracking and oil. Then says the oppesite when campaigning in oil states. Typical liver. What about Hunter and the money both are getting from China for starters. Biden is senile. Take the teleprompter away and he is lost.

PWC resident since '69

BideN does nOt have the mental capacity to eve fix himself a bowl of cereal! Unfortunately he and his cohorts are still the plantation masters and the residents don't realize they can leave when they want. Instead they listen to the demented master!

SuperNova

Pretty sure Joe Biden has a house on lake Montclair.

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