Virginia will have reported over 208,000 coronavirus cases by Thanksgiving, according to an updated forecast from the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute.
The most recent forecast, posted Friday by the Virginia Department of Health, predicts a peak in new weekly cases statewide of 9,980 during the week ending Sept. 27. The previous highest weekly number was 8,388 in the week ending Aug. 8.
The U.Va. institute said that with seasonal changes, the beginning of flu season and the reopening of some schools, the transmission rate could increase further. If the rate increases by 10%, new cases would peak at 11,380 the week ending Oct. 4. If the transmission rate increases 20%, new cases would peak at over 13,000 that same week. Those increases would add another 20,000 to 45,000 more confirmed cases by Thanksgiving.
The total number of new cases would be about 75,000 more than currently have been reported and would mean that in total about 2.5% of the state's population of over 8 million would have tested positive for the virus since early March.
The Friday report also noted a recent surge of new cases and an increase in the transmission rate in two health districts - Central Shenandoah and New River - that are home to several colleges and universities, including James Madison University and Virginia Tech.
In the Northern Virginia region, the transmission rate for the week ending Aug. 29 was 0.921, up 0.028 from the previous week. A transmission rate of less than 1 is considered good because it means that each person who contracts the virus is spreading the virus to less than 1 additional person.
The Northwest region had the highest transmission rate during that week, 1.649, while the statewide average was 1.027.
Separately, the state health department reported 874 new cases of COVID-19 on Sunday, with 233 of those in Northern Virginia. The state's seven-day average of new cases per day dropped to 984, and the Northern Virginia average dropped to 222.
Hospitalizations for treatment of COVID-19 ticked up slightly both statewide and in Northern Virginia after falling to a two-month low Saturday.
State health officials reported just two new deaths linked to COVID-19 on Sunday, with neither of those in Northern Virginia.
Northern Virginia data by locality
Seven-day average test positivity rate by health district
|Alexandria||40.1% / April 23||3.8% / July 1||5.6%||Up|
|Arlington||42.8% / April 20||2.4% / June 26||4.0%||Down|
|Fairfax||38.6% / April 22||4.8% / Aug. 6||6.1%||Down|
|Loudoun||27.9% / April 28||4.4% / Aug. 1||8.2%||Stable|
|Prince William||36.7% / April 18||6.9% / July 24||9.1%||Stable|
|Rappahannock||17.2% / May 8||3.5% / July 3||7.6%||Up|
|Statewide||20.6% / April 22||5.7% / June 23||7.5%||Down|
LATEST COVID-19 DATA
Northern Virginia: 233 new cases, 0 new deaths
Statewide: 874 new cases, 2 new deaths
Statewide Testing: 16,076 diagnostic tests
Northern Virginia: 47,688 cases, 1,130 deaths
Statewide: 133,814 cases, 2,724 deaths
Statewide Testing: 1.76 million diagnostic tests (1.9 million when including antibody tests)
Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) cases: 8
*Provided by Virginia Department of Health. The health department's COVID-19 data is updated each morning by 10 a.m. and includes reports by local health agencies before 5 p.m. the previous day.
Statewide Hospital and Nursing Home Data
Hospitalizations: 1,102 (up from 995 the previous day)
Peak Hospitalizations: 1,625 reached May 8
- Patients in ICU: 232 (up from 228 the previous day)
Patients Discharged: 16,310 total
- Nursing Home Patients: 595 confirmed positive cases (up from 589 the previous day)
*Provided by Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association
For updated national and international COVID-19 data, visit the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus dashboard.