U.Va. model 10.24.20

The Loudoun and Alexandria health districts are among those that moved into the "slow growth" trend of new COVID-19 cases this week. 

The number of new COVID-19 cases in Virginia could double over the next two months and nearly triple by January, according to the latest model from the Biocomplexity Institute at the University of Virginia.

The institute's updated model, released Friday, projects that cases will peak at about 14,900 the week ending Dec. 13.  That would be double the current trend of new cases of about 1,000 a day, or 7,000 a week.  Previously the institute had said cases would peak the week ending Nov. 22 at about 8,400.

The new model notes that reproduction rates now exceed 1.0 in most regions of the state, meaning each person who contracts the virus is passing it on to more than one additional person on average.  Reproduction rates need to be less than 1.0 in order to slow the spread of the virus.

In addition, seven of the state's 34 health districts are now seeing surges in the spread of the virus, up from five the previous week, and 17 are seeing slow growth, up from 13 the prior week.  In Northern Virginia, the Loudoun and Arlington health districts have moved from plateau to slow growth since the institute's Oct. 16 report, joining the Prince William health district.

The institute's weekly report said the increases are "a concerning trend as we head into the holiday season."

It also noted that if the holiday season and colder weather results in an additional jump in cases, the state could have as many as 20,000 new cases a week in January - or nearly triple current levels. 

"However, if Virginians respond to the increase in case growth by improving prevention efforts such as hand washing, social distancing, and wearing masks, cases could peak earlier and at a lower level," the institute wrote.

Saturday's update from the Virginia Department of Health brought two more doses of news indicating COVID-19 trends across the state are worsening.  The state's seven-day average positivity rate for diagnostic tests ticked above 5%, to 5.1%, for the first time in four weeks.  The 5% mark is generally considered an indicator that the virus is being contained. 

Seven-day average test positivity rate by health district

SOURCE: Virginia Department of Health

Health District Peak Low Current Trend
Alexandria 40.1% / April 23 3.2% / Oct. 18 4.4% Up
Arlington 42.8% / April 20 2.4% / June 26 3.6% Down
Fairfax 38.6% / April 22 3.3% / Oct. 16 3.9% Down
Loudoun 27.9% / April 28 4.0% / Sept. 30 & Oct. 3 4.9% Down
Prince William 36.7% / April 18 5.4% / Oct. 20 6.0% Down
Rappahannock 17.2% / May 8 3.5% / July 3 5.2% Stable
Statewide 20.6% / April 22 4.5% / Sept. 30, Oct. 1,2,12 & 13 5.1% Up

In addition, the state reported 39 new deaths related to COVID-19 on Saturday, on top of 15 Friday.   Over the past seven days, 156 new deaths have been reported.

The Friday and Saturday deaths reported included a net increase of just two in Northern Virginia.  Arlington County had two additional deaths and Fairfax one, but Alexandria's total was reduced by one. 

The state health department reported 1,088 new cases of coronavirus on Saturday, following 1,180 on Friday, bringing the state's seven-day average to 1,019.1. The average has been around 1,000 cases a day for a little over two weeks. 

In Northern Virginia, 196 new cases were reported Saturday, following 280 on Friday, and the region's seven-day average is at 239.3.  

Northern Virginia data by locality (Oct. 24, 2020)

SOURCE: Virginia Department of Health

Locality Cases Hospitalizations Deaths
Alexandria 4,200 323 74
Arlington 4,508 533 154
Fairfax 23,232 2,233 606
Fairfax City 157 14 8
Falls Church 74 13 7
Loudoun 7,730 475 130
Manassas 2,026 132 27
Manassas Park 640 57 8
Prince William 13,949 985 223
Totals 56,516 4,765 1,237
County/City Cases Hospitalizations Deaths
Fredericksburg 585 51 6
Spotsylvania 2,399 152 51
Stafford 2,316 169 20
Fauquier 1,076 56 27
Culpeper 1,340 97 18

The biggest increase in new cases statewide recently has been in sparsely populated southwestern Virginia, where the seven-day average now stands at 320. 


New Cases/Deaths

  • Northern Virginia: 196 new cases, 0 new net deaths.  

  • Statewide: 1,088 new cases, 39 new deaths

  • Statewide Testing: 16,956 diagnostic test results reported    

Overall Total

  • Northern Virginia: 56,516 cases, 1,237 deaths.

  • Statewide: 172,372 cases, 3,578 deaths

  • Statewide Testing: 2.49 million diagnostic tests (2.68 million when including antibody tests)

  • Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) cases: 10 

*Provided by Virginia Department of Health. The health department's COVID-19 data is updated each morning by 10 a.m. and includes reports by local health agencies before 5 p.m. the previous day.

Statewide Hospital and Nursing Home Data

  • Hospitalizations: 979 (down from 1,012 the previous day)

  • Peak Hospitalizations: 1,625 reached May 8

  • Patients in ICU: 220 (down from 233 the previous day)
  • Patients Discharged: 19,455 total

  • Nursing Home Patients: 693 (up from 633 and the most since this data was first provided in mid-June) 

*Provided by Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association

For updated national and international COVID-19 data, visit the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus dashboard.

See more headlines at InsideNoVa.com. Email tips to info@insidenova.com.

(34) comments


"God's gift to the left". The pro-death party loves it, but would have preferred a surge come in September/October


Nope, we Democrats are neither pro death nor hoping the virus kills regardless of time or who it kills everyone deserves to avoid this evil disease.


Your right on point with the Evil classification.[alien]


Your spot on, everyone does deserve to avoid the evil behind this Virus. But you wont vote against your party like millions of other Democrats will and vote Trump! He wouldnt have sold out the country to the Chinese like Biden![tongue]


Yeah, Trump cant sell out since he owes over 200 million for bad real estate deals he made in addition to the 187000 he paid in taxes to the Chinese government. What a real winner. Solid American.

He wont bite the hand that feeds him.


For GreekBean,

His private-sector business was also pre-executive office...What about the losers who supported deals such as NAFTA? And didnt fight to keep manufacturing jobs in the United States? Who could care less about the sovereignty of our country?


Yep! And the left orchestrated it so that the Red states would be full of cases right now. The left knew that the right would be dumb enough not to follow simple guidelines, so now we all laugh as hospitals are almost at capacity. Yes, the left used their experience in the northeast and hoarded the knowledge that wearing masks, limiting social interactions, and washing hands from "muh freedums" states. It is all going according to plan now. That is why the cases have dropped in states where mask usage was the norm--it is done to protect DEMONRAT LIVES!


Experience in the North East, like when the Communist News Network broadcasted the highly fraudulent Andrew Cumo 24/7 to explain to us this is how lock-downs work? In the meantime, him and the Mayor just as corrupt if not more corrupt than Creepy Puppet-Joe, had innocent nursery home patients infiltrated with sick patients? They could care less!

This set the stage for the profiteers to make money off of putting all these supposed infected patients on ventilators, which only ended up killing the patients. They wanted to present to the masses that this was in fact a pandemic. Project Veritas even caught these profiteers faking long lines outside of hospitals. We're talking about patients with mild to moderate symptoms mind you. Thats exactly what im going to do, im going to look to the North East to solve all my problems once and for all, with their decades of corrupt practices, high taxes, and debt out the you know what. Dont worry though, they'll just tax us more to pay it off, Not!

The PCR testing is not 100% accurate either, it doesnt prove or disprove you have SARS-CoV-2, and it depends on the specificity of the testing range. So the number of people who may or may not have or had the virus is wrong, and the people that actually die tragically and solely from the Virus, is under 10%. And the CDC released that a month ago, but knowing how the propaganda operates, I pretty much already figured that was the fact. All the physicians here and abroad that try to get this information out, are censored. Congratulations, welcome to Totalitarianism.

I got news for you, "mask usage" is Not normal except in a clinician setting, the dentist for example. Even then, it doesnt curb any virus or save countless lives. Un-real, and sad.

Its pretty disgusting to hear other individuals on here tell me, or anyone, to wash my hands? Im not in pre-school. Your Telling me, to wear a mask, (What if I have a medical condition?, or what If im just not brainwashed?) Your Telling me, to wash my hands. Your telling me!

Your just an amateur provocateur Ms. Bean, "muh freedum" states, calling me autistic on a different thread, you class A loser, and so is your corrupt weasel party. Id be reprimanded for picking you first in gym class.

But it doesnt matter, creepy-joe already lost his mind, therefore its near impossible for him to win an election.


I must have struck a nerve.

Well, a kicked dog hollers.

Keep it coming with your garbage manifesto-style writing and fringe sourcing.

Wash your hands. Wear a mask. And absolutely stay away from people.


For Ms. Greek-Bean,

No unfortunately for you, you didnt accomplish your goal of striking any nerves. You accomplished calling me an Autistic Dog though, so you know, thats always impressive...



Covid 19 is not the flu. Both are viral, respiratory illnesses, but they are not the same thing. The main difference is that Covid 19 is far deadlier. Over the last five years the seasonal flu has killed an average of 1,000 Americans per 1,000.000 who have contract the flu virus. Covid 19 has so far killed 36,000 per 1,000,000 who have contracted the virus that causes Covid 19. That alone makes Covid 19 to be at least 36 times deadlier than the seasonal flu. Additionally there is currently no vaccine that would keep a portion of the population from contracting Covid, as there is for the flu, making this pandemic far more deadlier than anything we in America have experienced in over 100 years. Social distancing, mask wearing & basic hygiene are the least we as Americans can do to help stop the spread of this insidious disease. To do less shows a basic disregard of the health and welfare of our fellow citizens. This is not a political issue but a human decency issue.


OMG WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE! AGAIN. That is if you look at the horrible headline to draw viewers. Meanwhile, hospitalizations continue to go down. Horrible journalism, again.


Until the proliferation of online comments, posts, and tweets, one had no idea how really stupid a large minority of the U.S. population really is. The ignorance is simply mind numbing.



And crazy nutjobs used to be relegated to street corners, passing out illuminati flyers and trying to convince anybody of how strange coincidences were drummed up by government men in black. But the internet unfortunately gave everyone a voice and the perception that their opinion matters. And there is a whole gullible generation that trusts everything posted online.

They should just delete their System 32 folder.



Somebody trusted their public school history books a little too much!


It appears that some believe too much in the misinformation manure shoveled out by Breitbart, Hannity & OANN


As an independent conservative i’d much rather follow advice of the scientific experts than the conspiracy theories of either the ultra right or ultra left crackpots.


That autistic comment really hit the mark, eh?

Look dude, I am advocating for public safety, social consciousness, common courtesy, and the health and welfare of ALL people. And then you bring the crazy. It's like you want people to die or get sick.

So either you are acting malicious, with the intent to spread disinformation in order to increase the transmission rate for some nefarious reason OR are willfully ignorant and can't deal with the reality that Trump has failed the American public and put his own wants above this country. You trust the same idiot who stared into the sun for medical advice. The same guy who wears diapers, stands like a centaur with heel lifts, and wears makeup to mask his own insecurities.


For Mr. Weaver,






Pretty much everything your stating couldnt be further from the truth. No one is acting malicious to spread disinformation to increase transmission. Boy, If I held that kind of a power...I havent even conjured that thought, so that speaks volumes about you.

Unlike you, I dont put me "trust" into the state. The state is much bigger than the holder of the Exectuive Office. However, Mr. Trump is an anomaly in Washington. Thats a fact. Before he was even elected, the goal was to overthrow the man who was not a Manchurian candidate. We call that a coup d'état. What does that say about the state? Please, take all the time you need. They would have done this to any other non-Manchurian candidate who refuses to follow orders. Im willing to bet this sounds Oh So Conspiratorial for you! When in reality, thats exactly whats happened.

You say your an advocate for public safety...good for you. Under your public safety platform, which i know already know doesnt include the abolition of heavy metals and aborted fetus DNA in Vaccines conjured up by the sickos who bark "We Must Follow Science We Must Follow Science" also known as Eugenicists. Ever hear of the American Eugenics Society? Probably not, since they dont go by that name anymore, they are better known as the "Society of Social Biology," much easier on the ears for sure. Kinda reminds me of how they switched the term "Global Warming," to "Climate Change."

Does it include wireless radiation exposure, the detrimental long-term effects of living/working in proximity to cell-phone towers, both 4 and 5G, and beyond. Does it bother you personally to see cell-phone towers next to our public schools, and day care centers and libraries and nursery homes? Does it bother you? Have you read the 5G Space Appeal? Do you even know what that is? Probably not, here it is for you to attempt to disprove and make your self "feel" better. But its going to be tough, simply because, wireless radiation never has, and never will be proven, to be safe. The old argument of wireless EMF being non-ionzing and the power input isnt high enough, is long gone. That argument doesnt stand anymore.


So, your more concerned about the SARS-CoV-2 hybrid-manufatured-part bat part human virus and because it makes you feel uncomfortable to be around someone who doesnt have a thin paper or cloth mask on, who is probably asymptomatic anyways, your advocating for truth and for health for all people?!

But wait for it, wait for it, im "crazy" because scientists discovered aborted fetus DNA in vaccines. Im crazy because PepsiCo. was experimenting with aborted fetus DNA to create a new artificial or "natural" sweetener. What about the folks who actually are getting paid to do this? Are they the heroes we all hope to become one day? In the name of HUMANITY and SCIENCE! No, this is all about death and destruction, power and control. And unfortunately it seems there are a few here who simply just dont want to hear it. And thats okay, thats fine. But one day you may just have to accept the truth for what it is.

If I wanted people to get sick and die, I wouldnt care about these topics im discussing and bringing before you. I want the opposite, quite frankly. Id prefer for individuals to empower themselves with knowledge and thought when it comes to how our bodies really interact, especially on a subconscious level within the environment around us. Its knowledge they just simply dont teach, because it is the true light. Health is wealth, and by "tracking" this virus and obsessing over social distancing and paper think masks and cloth wrapped around us is just confusing our children, manipulating their minds with electronics and wireless radiation, misleading people about going green with even more EMF emissions that disrupt the natural harmony of the planet, also known as the Schumann resonance. The electronic grid is merely a control mechanism of a population. Its all about CONTROL and Obedience to false hope.

Greek-bean, We are just not going to reach common ground, as much as that would be a good thing. You have your ways, and your mind is already made up. I wish you the best in your life goals. But what you think your advocating for, and what you actually are advocating for, are two different things.

So ill be ready for your sarcastic response, and thats that. Im sure you'll catalogue my remarks under a fringe manifesto, whatever. No body cares! Its up to the individual to figure out right from wrong.


Mr. Weaver,

I understand what your saying when it comes to following the advice of experts, but there are also "truth-experts" or real doctors and scientists that are being censored. I personally dont think Sean Hannity or Breitbart news would be to blame for this?



Dude, you are hilarious. I have been sharing your stuff with other people and they say you sound like the Unibomber.

I will take this opportunity though to explain the Electromagnetic spectrum.

All lifeforms are constantly being bombarded with radiation from the Sun. The "5G" bands of the spectrum have always been there and are going to be utilized by corporations so you can watch cat videos faster and with higher fidelity. The bands were relegated to emergency responders, govt agencies, weather stations, and other higher echelons of public works. Then during the Obama admin, these frequencies were sold off to primarily TV networks: https://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/20/obamas-balancing-act-on-digital-tv/

And here is more information on the EMS:



Keep it coming. Stay you.


Hopefully my last response to now, the GreekGoddessBean, since she is apparently worshiped by her small circle followers by apparently sharing my comments to her mortals, and my content is thoroughly discussed in her inner witchcraft circle...

"The "5G" bands of the spectrum have always been there" Oh really, they were using Wi-Fi in the 30s and 40s? This is news to me! They were using "smart-meters" on homes then also? I dont know if you know the true intended purpose of 5G, that is, for it for machines to be able to communicate with other machines on a scam "smart-grid" which they force on us any how in the name of Going Green and Energy Efficiency. I think GoddessBean Im beginning to rattle your cage a little bit, as you look for cover with your paper-think mask and economy size vats of hand sanitizer. Good God, your ego is huge. Before reading the 5G space appeal, you went to your enchanted search engine to pull up links to make your self feel better about the lies you believe, or dont believe possibly.

Microwave radiation is not SAFE. Period, and the levels we are starting to be bombarded with is inhumane. It will never be proven to be SAFE! Microwave radiation, not the sunlight. Im not talking about UVA,UVB,UVC rays that you brought up.

Im still baffled by the fact your sharing my comments with your followers...save me some Greek food though as long as any witches havent messed with it. Ill even wear my mask to come pick it up. And ill leave you a tip in bitcoin also.[alien]


One more for Mr. Weaver,



"Could." Then again, could not. What do the other models say? Are they ignored because they don't promote "the agenda?"

Toby Beaman

YES - This. Absolutely the truthiest comment here.


It shouldn't surprise anyone that Hawkeye10 is also a 5G radiation conspiracy fool as well. Consider that with as much worth as his other comments, and hope that he gets the mental health support he needs.


At what point, is it No longer a "conspiracy?" For you, the answer is never.

Do you also believe that we live in a "Democracy" as well, or is the term Constitutional Republic too complex for you to accept or understand?

Are all the original signatories of the 5G space-appeal mental health support candidates as well? The people that have dedicated their careers to this field? And the hundreds of thousands of others who took the time to review the research themselves?

Tman=Trump man![lol]


Lets be honest also, its pretty evident you could care-less about anyones general well being. Because the powers at be got you so focused on Trump. Its pretty obvious. And when the guy wins the election again out right, what are you gonna do then?


With the tman, all I can do is brace for another ad hominem attack!


Wow. Reading this forum is really entertaining. Take a look at the desert rain frog on YouTube and calm down.




Did he get hit by the rona too? 😁

Toby Beaman

Food for thought:

The Fact-Free COVID Dystopia


Welcome to the discussion.

Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language.
Don't Threaten. Threats of harming another person will not be tolerated.
Be Truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone or anything.
Be Nice. No racism, sexism or any sort of -ism that is degrading to another person.
Be Proactive. Use the 'Report' link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts.
Share with Us. We'd love to hear eyewitness accounts, the history behind an article.