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Never underestimate the chance Philadelphia might (by hook or by crook) pull off a come-from-behind victory, but based on data from the first 11 months of the year, it appears the city will fall short of Fairfax County for the crown of most home sales for 2020 in the Mid-Atlantic region.

With just December’s data to be reported, Fairfax County holds a 577-transaction lead over Philadelphia: 15,305 home sales to 14,728.

The city of brotherly love slightly closed the gap in November, when the difference had been 692 homes. But making up the remaining difference would seem to be unlikely (this is real estate, not presidential elections, after all).

For November, Fairfax County posted 1,417 transactions, up 32 percent from a year before. Philly had 1,500, up 24 percent from its total a year before, according to data provided by RealEstate Business Intelligence.

Last year, Philadelphia edged out Fairfax as having the most home transactions among the 70 or so localities that make up the Mid-Atlantic region. But more stringent lockdowns imposed by the governor of Pennsylvania put a crimp in home sales for a longer period of time in the Keystone State, allowing Fairfax to move ahead.

“Mid-Atlantic,” as defined by RealEstate Business Intelligence, includes all of the District of Columbia and Delaware, along with portions of Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and New Jersey.

More than two-thirds of the jurisdictions comprising the Mid-Atlantic report are running at higher year-to-date sales totals than they were a year before, according to the data. For the entirety of the coverage area, sales for the first 11 months of the year stand at 270,654, up 5.2 percent from a year ago.

After Fairfax and Philadelphia, the highest sales for the first 11 months of the year were reported in Montgomery County (Md.) at 12,152; Baltimore County (Md.) at 10,514; and Montgomery County (Pa.) at 10,246.

Final figures for 2020 will be reported the second week of January.

[Sun Gazette Newspapers provides content to, but otherwise is unaffiliated with, InsideNoVa or Rappahannock Media LLC.]

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